#EUFridays by JEF Hungary #24
Fanni Anna Spitzmüller
May-13-2022
President of the European Commission visit’s Orbán about tanked oil ban
Talks between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ended without a deal to overcome Budapest's objections to the plan to impose an EU ban on Russian oil on Monday, May 9th.
The sixth EU sanctions package against Russia was announced by Von der Leyen last Wednesday. One of the planned points of the package is the complete halt of Russian oil imports within 6 months. In order for the package to be accepted 27 EU countries’ must agree on it. However, both the Hungarian and the Slovakian governments were quick to note that in its current form they would not be supporting the package.
"We made progress, but further work is needed. I will convene a VC with regional players to strengthen regional cooperation on oil infrastructure," tweeted the von der Leyen shortly after the meeting.
About 25% of the EU’s oil comes from Russia, but some countries use way more: Slovakia and Hungary, landlocked countries that are nearly 100%-dependent on Russian oil, have been offered a delay in imposing the oil embargo until the end of 2024, to enable them to overhaul their refineries. The Czech Republic has been offered a delay until June 2024, while the full ban would come into force for the rest of the EU by the end of this year.
Orbán said last week that “in its present form” the proposal was “tantamount to dropping a nuclear bomb on the Hungarian economy”. The Hungarian foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, also repeated the phrase before Monday’s talks with Von der Leyen. Following the meeting, Szijjártó posted a short video on his social media page in which he also said that although some progress has been made, there is still much left to be discussed before an agreement is reached. In the video posted on his Facebook page, Szijjártó said that the sanctions package proposed by Brussels would create huge problems for Hungary, it would destroy the country’s secure energy supply and would make it impossible to obtain the oil needed to keep the Hungarian economy going.
Franch president, Emmanuel Macron said a deal on a proposed EU ban on Russian oil could be struck this week, despite opposition from the Hungarian prime minister. EU diplomats are also weighing up a radical option to get around Orbán's reluctance to ban Russian oil: park the plan. The fact that diplomats are considering such a dramatic step shows how hard it is for the EU to escalate its economic offensive against the Kremlin and how painful it is to wean itself off Russian energy.
"There is indeed an idea floating to split up the package as we're agreed on 90 percent of it, so moving forward with everything but the oil ban," one EU diplomat said. "It's frustrating that we can't move forward with the things that are agreed on. So why not do it like this, be pragmatic and then continue the energy discussion?"
Yet any dilution of the oil package would be damaging to the EU's credibility, especially after von der Leyen and other political leaders have been so clear that hitting Putin's oil industry is vital. The remainder of the sanctions package includes measures targeting pro-Russian propaganda, lobbyists and consultants, as well as Sberbank, Russia's biggest bank. However, the heart of the package was always meant to be a strike against the Kremlin's energy industry.
https://www.politico.eu/article/von-der-leyen-to-travel-to-hungary-over-oil/
Finland moves to join NATO
Finland should apply to join the NATO military alliance, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin said in a joint statement on Thursday, May 12th.
"NATO membership would strengthen Finland's security. As a member of Nato, Finland would strengthen the entire defense alliance," their joint statement said. "Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay. We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days," they added.
It is a historic policy shift, as Finland has been neutral since the end of the Second World War, after it was invaded by the Soviet Union. However, since the invasion of Ukraine, Finland is among a number of countries that have been forced to rethink their relationship with Russia, no longer certain that non-alignment is the safest approach.
Finnish Parliament's defense committee said on Tuesday that joining NATO is the best option for Finland to guarantee its national security as it would significantly increase the deterrent for becoming a target of Russia's aggression.
If it becomes the 31st nation in the defensive pact, Finland will hope to benefit from the one-for-all, all-for-one commitment that requires all the members to come to the aid of any individual state that is attacked.
EU Council president Charles Michel tweeted that it was a "historic step, once taken, that will greatly contribute to European security. With Russia waging war in #Ukraine it's a powerful signal of deterrence."
Finnish public support for joining Nato has also risen to record numbers over the last few months, with the latest poll by public broadcaster YLE showing 76 percent of Finns in favour, and only 12 percent against.
However, Russia has slammed Finland’s plans to apply to join NATO imminently, claiming it would “be forced” to retaliate if the long-neutral country joined the military alliance.
“Finland joining NATO is a radical change in the country’s foreign policy,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to stop threats to its national security arising.”
https://euobserver.com/ukraine/154926
https://apnews.com/article/sweden-finland-sauli-niinisto-4ede1942b679dd15bd3021f9b194cbec
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/russia-threatens-retaliatory-steps-if-finland-joins-nato.html
UK vs. Ireland: disputes over the Northern Ireland Protocol strike again
The United Kingdom has rejected the European Union’s proposals to resolve a standoff over post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland, saying it would not shy away from taking direct action in the latest escalation between the two sides.
The UK government is threatening to write new laws to allow it to unilaterally override parts of the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol due to concerns over “peace and stability”.
The protocol was part of the UK’s 2019 Brexit divorce deal with the European Union. To avoid imposing a trade-and-customs border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland it put one in the Irish Sea between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, which in effect remained part of the EU trading bloc. It requires checks on some goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain. Unionists say this undermines Northern Ireland’s position in the UK and could lead to an economic united Ireland.
The issue has returned to center stage because the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) says it will not join a new executive at Stormont unless Boris Johnson’s Tory government alters the protocol. Northern Ireland just had an election for a new Stormont assembly, which is supposed to form an executive – a devolved government with ministers – on Thursday. Power-sharing rules require DUP participation. Refusal to do so will paralyze the executive, creating an impasse that would destabilize Northern Ireland.
Striking a deal that preserved peace in Northern Ireland and protected the EU’s single market without imposing a hard land border between the British province and EU member state Ireland, or a border within the UK, was always the biggest challenge for London as it embarked on its exit from the bloc.
The European Commission could widen the list of products that are exempt from checks at Northern Ireland ports and fudge any role the European court of justice has in administering the protocol. Nevertheless, the EU vice-president, Maroš Šefčovič, has played down the prospect of big concessions. “The EU has already shown a lot of flexibility by proposing impactful, durable solutions and we stand ready to continue discussions.”
Brussels offered to ease customs checks in October last year, but British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss on Wednesday, May 11th said this failed to address the core problem, “and in some cases would take us backward”. “Prices have risen, trade is being badly disrupted, and the people of Northern Ireland are subject to different laws and taxes than those over the Irish Sea, which has left them without a (governing) executive and poses a threat to peace and stability,” she said in a statement.
The Times newspaper reported that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government could legislate to ditch checks on goods and tell businesses in Northern Ireland to disregard EU rules.
The move to announce domestic legislation which would effectively disapply the protocol could come on Tuesday, a Conservative source said.
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